Effect of Concentration on Osmosis Essay -- GCSE Biology Osmosis Cours

Impact of Concentration on Osmosis Point To discover how the grouping of sucrose arrangement influences the mass of the potato chip left in the answer for one day. Forecast I foresee that when the sucrose fixation is low the potato chip will increase mass. This is on the grounds that there will be a higher sucrose fixation in the potato chip so water will go into the potato from the arrangement. I foresee that when there is a high grouping of sucrose the potato will lose mass. This is on the grounds that there is a higher centralization of sucrose arrangement in the arrangement contrasted with that in the potato chip so water from the potato will go into the answer for indeed, even it out. Assimilation is the development of a dissolvable through a specifically penetrable layer (starting at a living cell) into an answer of higher solute focus that will in general adjust the centralizations of solute on the different sides of the film Assimilation is the development of water from high water fixation to lower water fixation through a specifically porous layer. Specifically porous membranesare extremely slim layers of material (cell layers are specifically penetrable), which permit a few atoms to go through them yet keep different atoms from going through. Cell layers will permit little particles like Oxygen, water, Carbon Dioxide, Ammonia, Glucose, amino-acids, and so on to go through. Cell layers won't permit bigger atoms like Sucrose, Starch, protein, and so on to go through. In my test I will have a test tube with a potato chip in. The outside mass of the potato chip is specifically penetrable so it lets water go through it yet not greater particles, for example, sucrose. In the test tubes I will put various convergences of sucrose arrangement. At the point when the grouping of the arrangement is lower than that in the potato, water will go through the specifically penetrable divider into the potato. Potato cells Sucrose arrangement The mass of the potato chip increments Sucrose atom Water atom At the point when the sucrose arrangement is more grounded outside if the potato chip water will move out from the potato chip into the arrangement. At the point when the fixation is the equivalent on the two sides of the specifically porous divider nothing goes through it and the mass will remain the same. Plan Mechanical assembly Five test tubes Names Ruler Scales Tissue... ...hips in each test tube. This would make it increasingly precise as when I had two out of a test tube in the event that one of them was far out it made the diagram not follow the line well when I plotted the midpoints. There was one bizarre outcome at 0.5 mol. I think this was on the grounds that we tapped them dry when we got them out of the test tubes as we didn't need to weigh there water outwardly of the potato yet I think that we might not have dried them all similarly so this atypical outcome may have been because of it having water left outwardly of it. Additionally the potato itself was not from a similar piece of the potato and was not the very same size, in spite of the fact that I tried to slice them to 36mm each. I could likewise attempt a similar analysis yet with various volumes of cell tissues and check whether the rate change varied with a greater also, littler surface territory. I could now explore the littler range close to 0.25 to see the sucrose focus identical to the potato. At long last, I could stretch out the analysis to a progressively precise level by taking a gander at the potato chambers under a magnifying instrument, at that point I would be ready to see the cells in more prominent detail and draw some more observational outcomes.

Shopping Mode Choice Essay Example for Free

Shopping Mode Choice Essay This examination expects to investigate how buyers assess these time traits; I. e. the estimation of time, when they are confronting a shopping mode decision between physical store shopping and e-shopping. For this reason, it leads a trial to obtain information on respondents’ expressed inclination decisions between physical book shop shopping and online book shop shopping. It is at long last discovered that the estimation of conveyance time for a bought book from an online book shop to a purchaser is roughly $0. 53 every day, which implies an online book shop should bring down a book’s cost by cost by $0.. 53 to pull in a physical book shop customer if the conveyance is deferred for one day. It is likewise discovered that as far as fiscal qualities, maintaining a strategic distance from a shopping trip creates definitely a bigger number of advantages than bearing hanging tight for the conveyance of books for an online buy. Catchphrases * E-shopping; * Shopping mode decision; * Stated inclination try; * Value of movement time; * Value of item conveyance time 1. Presentation In the previous decade, the manner in which individuals shop has significantly changed. Other than shopping at physical stores, with the guide of data and correspondence advancements (ICT), customers can shop by means of the Internet. This new kind of shopping mode, coming in various names like e-shopping, web based shopping, arrange shopping, Internet shopping, or Web-based shopping, highlighting in liberating customers from having to actually visit physical stores, is foreseen to enormously change people’s regular day to day existences. Such a high expectation towards e-shopping has incited innumerable investigations on this point. The vast majority of the current writing, nonetheless, has concentrated on the focal points and impediments of Internet promoting. Such a mental viewpoint has been generally embraced in the promoting and data the executives zones specifically. Nearly, almost no of the current writing has worried about how customers settle on the decision between e-shopping versus store shopping ( [Lee and Tan, 2003] and [Farag et al. 2007]). One reason for this might be credited to the complex idea of the shopping movement. It has been broadly perceived that shopping action is led not just for the objective of merchandise obtaining. The intrigue of customary store shopping is diverse, including social cooperation, amusement, development, and outing affixing (Mokhtarian, 2004). A great part of the intrigue can't be effectively dislodged by e-shopping, making conventional store shopping still very serious over e-shopping. In a reasonable examination of the transportation effects of B2C web based business, Mokhtarian (2004) audited the near points of interest of store shopping and e-shopping, and infer that neither sort consistently commanded the other. In view of such a multifaceted nature of shopping conduct and the overall dominances of e-shopping versus store shopping, displaying the connections between these two shopping modes has been not a simple assignment. The referable writing on this issue, from Koppelman et al. 1991) who displayed consumers’ decisions between store shopping, inventory shopping and mail order shopping, Lee and Tan (2003) who built up a financial model of purchaser decision between on-line and in-store shopping, to Farag et al. (2007), who applied the basic condition displaying (SEM) strategy to show the connections between e-shopping and store shopping, is obviously constrained. This propels this examination to address the decision conduct between e-shopping versus store shopping as opposed to e-shopping alone. Another recognizable point at issue is the means by which ICT prompts changes in the designation of individuals’ time and cash assets. It is by and large accepted that the progressing headway of ICT is prompting a rearrangement of exercises in reality (Lenz and Nobis, 2007). The ‘fragmentation’ idea presented by Helen Couclelis implies the interference of one action by another and the ensuing continuation of the previous empowered by the utilization of ICT (Lenz and Nobis, 2007). This at that point prompts expanded vehicle request, as exercises are not, at this point importantly bound to specific occasions and additionally specific spots (Lenz and Nobis, 2007). For example, e-shopping could lift the existence limitations of the shopping procedure, driving at last to a discontinuity of the shopping movement in reality ( [Couclelis, 2004] and [Farag et al. , 2007]). Such a ‘fragmentation’ of exercises should wind up driving people to reallocate their time and cash assets, and in the end change the manner in which they esteem time. This rouses this examination to address the job time and cost properties play in consumers’ shopping mode decision conduct. For shopping exercises, two parts of time might merit investigating further. Initially, e-shopping liberates buyers from going face to face to the shopping place, and accordingly spares them travel time. Second, e-shopping expects buyers to sit tight for the item conveyance after online buys, and thus creates sitting tight time for conveyance (or item conveyance time).

Use Your 5 Senses to Manage Stress Levels

Use Your 5 Senses to Manage Stress Levels PTSD Coping Print Use Your 5 Senses to Manage Stress Levels By Matthew Tull, PhD twitter Matthew Tull, PhD is a professor of psychology at the University of Toledo, specializing in post-traumatic stress disorder. Learn about our editorial policy Matthew Tull, PhD Updated on January 22, 2020 PeopleImages.com/DigitalVision/Getty Images More in PTSD Coping Causes Symptoms Diagnosis Treatment Related Conditions PTSD and the Military In This Article Table of Contents Expand Importance of Self-Soothing Touch Taste Smell Sight Sound Implementing These Strategies View All Back To Top When you are upset, it is important to have ways of coping with stress. There are many ways to relieve stress and among them are what we sometimes call self-soothing skills or techniques. These are simple things that you can do wherever youre at that can bring calm to your mind and body. Why Are Self-Soothing Skills Important? Coping strategies are diverse, just like the people who rely on them. When stress and anxiety hit, its a good idea to have a few skills ready to help you find relief. For example, seeking out social support can be an excellent way of improving your mood. However, symptoms of PTSD, such as unpleasant memories or thoughts about a past traumatic event, can sometimes occur unexpectedly. It is times like these when social support may not be readily available. Therefore, it is important to learn coping strategies that you can do on your own. Coping strategies are focused on your emotions and often described as self-soothing or self-care coping strategies. The most effective strategies involve one or more of the five senses â€" touch, taste, smell, sight, and sound. Lets take a look at some self-soothing techniques you can try for each sense. The Soothing Aspects of Touch Your skin is the largest organ in your body and it is very sensitive to external stimulus. This makes it a powerful tool in your ability to relax, unwind, and find relief from the stress that youre feeling. Water is one of the ways that you can feel instant relief. That can come from soaking in a warm bath or going for a swim. Likewise, you can give your skin a warm touch by simply sitting in the warmth of the sun or changing into your most comfortable clothes. Among other things, you might try are taking a few minutes to stretch your musclesâ€"possibly through a few simple yoga poses or tai chi movementsâ€"or getting a massage. Even taking a few minutes to play with and pet an animal can be amazingly beneficial to your mood. The Tastes That Can Soothe While its best to try not to turn to food for comfort all the time, there is something to be said about its effects on mood. Many of us have learned that hunger can lead to irritability and this can impact stress levels as well. Rather than turning to junk food to make yourself feel better, try sucking on hard candy or sipping a cup of soothing herbal tea. You may also find ease in a comforting meal. Try to include healthy foods so you maintain a healthy body as well as a healthy mind. The Refreshing Power of Smell A number of research studies have looked into the positive benefits of aromatherapy. It is often one of the recommended natural treatments for people dealing with stress, anxiety, depression, and problems with sleep. For instance, one study found that intensive care patients with anxiety slept better after inhaling lavender essential oil.?? In a meta-analysis of various clinical studies, researchers found that aromas can play a positive role in stress management.?? There are many ways you can take advantage of soothing scents. Browsing a flower shop or spending time literally smelling the roses in a garden can brighten your mood. Likewise, simply stepping outside and taking a deep breath of fresh air can provide instant stress relief. Lavender, vanilla, bergamot and a number of other fragrances have proven to reduce stress as well. You can get these through scented candles, aromatherapy diffusers with essential oils, or a variety of other products. Take Your Mind off It With Sight Distractions can be a good thing, particularly when your mind is stuck on your stress triggers. Sometimes its best to just find something amusing or interesting to look at.   Some of the techniques you might use include reading a good book or simply watching the clouds pass by. You can also entertain yourself by watching a funny movie or television show. Many people also find it beneficial to reflect on happy times or hopes and dreams. You might want to look through pictures of your loved ones or a past vacation that was filled with fun and joy. Of course, you can also daydream about places you want to visit. Look for things around you that make you smile and its likely the stress will dissipate. Relax With Sound Your sense of sound is just as effective as the rest in setting you up for a positive emotional state. Music therapy has become a recommended treatment for people with depression, anxiety, and stress. No matter where you are, you can feel these effects by listening to relaxing music or singing to yourself.?? You might even try saying  positive statements to yourself as a verbal form of self-encouragement. Some people have also found that playing a musical instrument or learning how to play one has helped them reduce their stress. Putting These Strategies to Work When engaging in these strategies, make sure to focus completely on the task at hand. That is, be mindful of your senses and what you are experiencing. Anytime you are distracted, simply bring your attention back to what you are doing. Come up with your own self-soothing strategies that you can do when you are upset. Try to list as many as you can. The more you have at your disposal, the better off you will be in improving your mood when you are experiencing distress. How Proper Self Care Can Reduce Your Stress Levels

Tensions in Villette - 1692 Words

Tensions in Villette Villette is a narrative that seems constantly at war with itself, fraught with tensions of reason versus feeling, nature versus art and reality versus imagination, as I will attempt to illustrate. Lucy is anything but a one dimensional character and it throughout the novel, her emotional growth is charted. The important elements in the narrative seem to resist a one-sided reading. Read in context, perhaps Bronte recognizes that in the Victorian world, tensions of the aforementioned impinge upon and are all shaped by one another.[1] Reason/ Feeling In chapter 23, Lucy Snowe penned two replies to Graham’s letter, one under â€Å"the dry stinting check of Reason† and another â€Å"according to the full, liberal impulse†¦show more content†¦Nature/ Art The three couples in the story are all described differently and represent different values with regard to nature and art. Although we hear most about Lucy and M. Paul, what we are told about the other two pairs make Lucy’s tale even more tragic, given that Lucy suffers the most by the end of the novel. Ginevra and Colonel de Hamal, who is tiny in stature and looks like a doll to Lucy, are conceived as almost pseudo art objects. Ginevra is depicted as a butterfly flitting through life, having neither sense nor substance and quite happily so. Most of what we hear about Ginevra is about her outward appearance, thus making her primarily an object of beauty. We hear about her blonde curls, rouge, spangles and sashes, and her habit of often gazing at gaudy polished mirrors. Colonel de Hamal is figured as a dandy, â€Å"so nicely curled, so booted, gloved and crafted† (163). At one point, Polly and Ginevra are even contrasted as works of art or figures in a painting- â€Å"nature having traced all these details slightly, and with a careless hand, in Miss Fanshawes case; and in Miss de Bassompierres, wrought them to a high and delicate finish† (346). On the other hand, Graham and Polly are depicted as nature cultivated by art[3], something between nature and art that Robert Colby likens to sheltered greenhouse plants. Dr John’s features are said to be â€Å"though well cut they were not so chiselled, soShow MoreRelatedThe Perception of Women in the Early 19th Century1184 Words   |  5 Pagesnigger† (22). This shows how Antoinette’s struggle with her place and identity is at the center of her turmoil and at the heart of what Rhys is trying to expose. In Susan Lydon’s article, â€Å"Abandoning and Re-inhabiting Domestic Space in Jane Eyre, Villette, and Wide Sargasso Sea,† she discusses the ways patriarchs fail at providing safe spaces for women. Lydon addresses how both Brontë and Rhys expose the harms of the English patriarch, she writes, â€Å"[In] her modern remaking of Jane Eyre, Jean RhysRead MoreA Dialogue of Self and Soul11424 Words   |  46 Pagesbecause it is he who will initiate her into the mysteries of the ï ¬â€šesh. That both Jane and Rochester are in some part of themselves conscious of the barrier which Rochester’s sexual knowledge poses to their equality is further indicated by the tensions that develop in their relationship after their betrothal. Rochester, having secured Jane’s love, almost reï ¬â€šexively begins to treat her as an inferior, a plaything, a virginal possession – for she has now become his initiate, his ‘mustard-seed,’Read MoreDisneyland analysis8865 Words   |  36 Pagesblunders before and at the time of the opening cultural, financial and economic matters. A capital asset that cannot earn income has no value; it becomes a liability. It did subject Disney Company to some ridicule by the press (Solomon, 1994). The tension between globalization forces that led to it’s expansion in Europe and localization forces, the result of local differences in production and marketing techniques has forced Disney Company to change and adapt it s much prized know-how: for example

The End of the Republic - 1197 Words

Caesar, Pompey, and Crassus joined forces to form a triple leadership called the First Triumvirate. The rulers of Rome’s states and colonies suspected that one man would soon emerge as the complete ruler. Antipater, ruler of Idumea, played one ruler against the other to seek favor. Crassus invaded Jerusalem and stole the temple treasure while war broke out between Pompey and Caesar. Antipater sided with Pompey until Pompey was defeated, and then switched his loyalty to Caesar. Caesar abolished the five districts and named Antipater procurator of all. Caesar became governor of the southern strip of Gaul, which Rome had annexed some sixty years earlier. He defeated the Celtic Gauls, conquering a huge area corresponding to modern France†¦show more content†¦After new victories over former troops of Pompey in Asia Minor, North Africa, and Spain, he returned to Rome in triumph. Less than a year later, on the Ides of March, he lay stabbed to death on the floor of the Senate at the foot of Pompey’s statue, the victim of sixty senators who thought of themselves as heroic tyrannicides. Caesar’s friend, Anthony, defeated Caesar’s enemies in northern Greece. He then named Antipater’s sons, Herod and Phasael, as tetrarchs (rulers of fourths) of Galilee. (Packer) When the Parthians invaded Syria and Palestine to aid a Hasmonean attempt to regain power, Herod fled to his fortress at Masada on the western shore of the Dead Sea. His older brother, Phasael, was captured and committed suicide. Herod traveled to Rome, where the Roman Senate named him king of Judea. Anthony and his troops finally overpowered the Parthians and their Seleucid allies, and Anthony settled in Jerusalem. The strain of imperial expansion was so great that Rome took in no new territories for least fifty years after Caesar’s birth. Rome ruled most of Greece, Syria, Judea, and North Africa. Only one Greek-influenced nation remained intact. This was Egypt, r uled by Queen Cleopatra. Cleopatra became Julius Caesar’s friend after he defeated Pompey. When Caesar was murdered, Cleopatra tried to pick the winner in the struggle forShow MoreRelatedBolivars End Of The Second Republic1199 Words   |  5 PagesAugust of 1813. This was known as Simon Bolivar’s â€Å"Admiral Campaign†. He went on to declare a second republic and assumed his role as a military dictator. â€Å"The Second Republic collapsed within a few months, however, because Bolivar had failed to win the support of the non-white, many of whom were instead recruited to fight with those loyal to the king.† What also led to the fall of the Second Republic was the â€Å"Infernal Legion† that consisted of skilled lancers claiming to give back to the poor andRead MoreThe End Of Plato s Republic Book I2029 Words   |  9 Pages In the end of Plato’s Republic Book I, Socrates and Thrasymachus who had just finished a set of vigorous arguments on what the definition for justice is and whether the just or the unjust life is the best life to live, come to a conclusion. Regarding the true definition of justice, at the end of Book I, Socrates mentions that their discussion have not led them to the true definition of justice (Republic 354b). On the other hand, their discussion on which life is more profitable does come to a conclusionRead MoreEmergence of Anti-Semitism in Germany Toward the End of the Weimar Republic1601 Words   |  7 PagesEmergence of Anti-Semitism in Germany Toward the End of the Weimar Republic There were many different factors that resulted in anti-Semitism emerging so strongly in Germany towards the end of the Weimar Republic. These factors included the instability of the economy during the reign of the Weimar Republic, the lingering anger over the way the Weimar Republic Governing Body had so easily accepted the Treaty of Versailles, and Germanys need for a great leader who wouldRead MoreRoman Empire vs. Roman Rebublic Essay900 Words   |  4 PagesThough the roman empire and the roman republic vary in their political structures they are quite common in the structures of their social hierarchy and reasoning for their downfalls. The Roman Republic and the Roman Empire highly differ in their political structures. The republic: created in 509 BCE. was a form of representative democracy. It consisted of 2 consuls of which were appointed by the senate and then voted on. These consuls were the head officers and the were appointed for one yearRead MoreAnalysis Of The Book By Nikolaus Pevsner Essay1250 Words   |  5 PagesThe second recurring issue is that it is difficult to tell from what time period most art came from. Lots of art pieces are given circa, from a rough period, of about two hundred years, making it difficult for some pieces to be determined as Roman Republic or Empire work. In Strong’s preface to his book, there is an overview about the influences of propaganda in artwork given by his editor, Nikolaus Pevsner, in the foreword of the book. He states that Works of art, especially sculpture, were part ofRead MoreThe State of Nature in Hobbes ´ Leviathan1062 Words   |  4 Pagesregardless of what type of state, comes from the need to escape a common fear among all men. In other words, there is generally no great difference between one type of state from the other in terms of the ends that such states seek to achieve. The generation of all states, ,principalities or republics, comes from the common fear of what Hobbes dubs â€Å"the state of nature† (54). The state of nature is essentially life in an anarchic society without a government where every man is free to act upon his ownRead MoreDominican Republic vs. Haiti1245 Words   |  5 PagesDominican Republic and Haiti: A Comparison of How One Island Has Two Complete Different Ends Dominican Republic and Haiti: A Comparison of How One Island Has Two Complete Different Ends The Hispaniola is a small island in the Caribbean which is currently composed by the Dominican Republic and the Republic of Haiti. These two countries despite sharing an island and historical institutions are completely different. While the Dominican Republic enjoys the beauty of the Caribbean and its weatherRead MoreJulius Caesar: Conqueror, General, Builder, Dictator for Life755 Words   |  4 Pages Julius Caesar, an important figure in Roman history, lived during the end of the Roman Republic. His actions would shape the world around him forever. He was an important figure because he grew the Roman Empire, he brought about the end of the Roman Republic , and was able to grow his status within his lifetime and become dictator for life. Julius Caesar was born on July 12 , 100 BC and died on March 15, 44 BC. Caesar was born into a patrician family. This meant that they were noble andRead MoreUnited States Vs. Educational Systems1395 Words   |  6 PagesDemocratic Republic of the Congo, Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, and the Republic of the Philippines. Primarily, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the United States of America have similarities and differences in the education system. The Democratic Republic of Congo has two types of schools, as in the United States of America. Both countries have public and private schools. Private schools are not free and are not funded by the government neither in the Democratic Republic of Congo norRead MoreThe Classic Age Of Greece996 Words   |  4 Pagesnavy force to establish power over other Greeks. Meanwhile in 509 B.C.E the Roman Republic was founded. Rome’s greatest expansion was not during the empire but during the republic. It began with the legend of their first king Romulus. Romulus was known for commanding his men to kidnap and impregnate the Sabine women to create a larger population. Sabine men charged back attacking Rome to rescue their women. In the end they made peace and merged their population with that of Rome. This action displays

Corporate Evaluation Analysis †Avon Products Free Essays

string(75) " is that they are familiar names that offer the necessities of daily life\." Table of Contents I. Company History†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦.. We will write a custom essay sample on Corporate Evaluation Analysis – Avon Products or any similar topic only for you Order Now Pg. 3 II. Recent News†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Pg. 5 III. Industry Analysis†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Pg. 8 IV. SWOT Analysis†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦.. Pg. 15 V. Value Line Analysis†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚ ¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Pg. 15 VI. Ratio Analysis†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Pg. 18 VII. Regression Descriptive Statistics – Growth Analysis†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Pg. 20 VIII. Growth Analysis, Estimates for Earnings Employed in DDM, DDM including Discount Rate, and Other Assessments of Risk†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦. Pg. 23 IX. Other Valuation Parameters†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Pg. 26 X. Rule #1†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦. Pg. 28 XI. Conclusions/Final Stock Judgment†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Pg. 31 XII. References†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢ € ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Pg. 33 XIII. Appendix†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦.. Pg. 35 I. Company History In general, Avon Products, Inc. is a U. S. cosmetics, perfume, jewelry, skin care, personal care and children’s products seller with markets in over 140 countries across the world and sales of $9. 9 billion worldwide. Avon Founder David H. McConnell offered women a rarity in 19th century America: a chance at financial independence. In 1886, it was practically unheard of for a woman to run her own business. Only about 5 million women in the United States were working outside the home, let alone climbing the ranks of any corporate ladder. That number accounted for just 20% of all women (Avon. com). The man behind the company for women was the son of Irish immigrants and grew up on a farm. Yet, it was this young man from rural New York, a visionary leader decades ahead of his time, who would become a pioneer in empowering women. McConnell, a bookseller-turned-perfume entrepreneur, would offer women the opportunity to create and manage their own businesses through what later became known as direct selling. David H. McConnell sold books door-to-door and gave out perfume to entice women to buy his books. His perfume proved to be much more popular than his books, so he then founded the California Perfume Company (CPC) in New York, New York. Mrs. P. F. E Albee, a 50-year old wife and mother of two, became the California Perfume Company’s first Representative. The legendary Mrs. Albee is still considered a role model for Avon Representatives today and is credited with creating the company’s system for distributing products. The California Perfume Company was incorporated on January 28, 1916 by David H. McConnell and Alexander D. Henderson (businessman) in Suffern, New York. By 1918, five million units were sold in North America, and by 1928, sales reached $2 million. In October 1939, the name was changed to Avon Products, Inc; McConnell had visited Stratford-Upon-Avon (UK) and had liked the town so much, that he renamed his company after it. The company was taken public in 1946 with OTC stock. By 1954, sales reached $55 million, and the â€Å"Avon Calling† advertising campaign was introduced, making it one of the largest and most successful advertising campaigns in history (Avon. com). In the 1960’s and 1970’s, Avon was one of Wall Street’s favorite â€Å"Nifty Fifty† stocks, a group of well-regarded, â€Å"buy and hold† blue chips that also included Xerox, Disney, and McDonald’s. These stocks helped drive the bull market of the early 1970s in the U. S. , with Avon’s stock soaring to $140. The Nifty Fifty bubble later bursts, sending U. S. stocks plunging. Avon was listed on the NYSE as AVP in 1964. By 1979, sales reached $3 billion, with one million direct sales agents. Today sales exceed $10 billion worldwide. In June 1989, Avon became the first major cosmetic company to announce a permanent end to animal testing on all Avon-manufactured products. Avon does not conduct animal testing on any of its products or raw ingredients and does not require that suppliers of raw ingredients and finished products produced for Avon conduct animal testing on our behalf. In addition to its corporate pursuits, the Avon corporation is involved in philanthropic causes. The Avon Foundation for Women, an accredited 501(c)(3) public charity, is the largest corporate-affiliated philanthropy for women in the world. Avon has been committed to helping women achieve their highest potential of economic opportunity and self-fulfillment by empowering them through scholarships and support for other forms of educational and occupational training and advancement. The Avon Foundation is currently focused on two key causes: breast cancer and domestic violence. Through 2009, Avon global philanthropy raised and donated more than $725 million worldwide for causes most important to women. Since 1992 in more than 50 countries around the globe, millions of dedicated Avon Representatives have sold special Avon cause products, raising almost $150 million to end breast cancer and domestic violence and to help in times of global emergencies. In 1999, the first woman CEO was named: Andrea Jung. In 2003, â€Å"mark. â€Å", which is targeted to younger, college-aged women, was created to help the company reach out into markets it had not previously serviced. mark. as proven to be successful in reaching a new generation of recruits, primarily young women ages 18–25, with a monthly â€Å"magalog† featuring its products. In 2008, reality star Lauren Conrad became a spokesmodel for the brand. Conrad also designed clothing and accessories for the brand. In 2010, actress Ashley Greene would replace Conrad as the spokes model for the brand. T hroughout the first decade of the new millennium, Avon began operating in numerous new markets, with heavy expansion in Central and Eastern Europe and the Caribbean Islands. Avon is now in more than 100 markets and is coined to be â€Å"the company for women†. II. Recent News AVP has a market cap of $11. 43B, operating cash flow of $702M, and consistent quarterly dividends around $0. 22 per share, making AVP a leader in personal products globally (Investment Underground). Given AVP’s positioning in the personal products industry, Avon could be a prime takeover candidate for competitors such as The Estee Lauder Company (EL) or French conglomerate L’Oreal SA (LRLCY. PK) looking to expand their reach into the direct sales portion of the personal products market. Because AVP currently has one of the lowest operating margins in the sector (11. 0%), competitors such as EL could view AVP as an attractive investment in hopes of increasing profitability. In turbulent times, people turn inward. The argument for large cap consumer staple companies is that they are familiar names that offer the necessities of daily life. You read "Corporate Evaluation Analysis – Avon Products" in category "Papers" Barron’s Magazine presents a list of ten companies that fit this argument. The underlying thesis is that these ten companies offer cash flow, dividends and predictable growth. This list includes: Avon Products (AVP), Campbell Soup (CPB), Clorox (CLX), Coca Cola Enterprises (CCE), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), General Mills (GIS), Kellogg (K), Molson Coors Brewing (TAP), PepsiCo (PEP), and Proctor Gamble (PG). Are these companies really good investments for today? |Ticker |Company |Recent |Price Chg. |Dividend |EV/EBITDA |EV/SALES | | | |Price |52W |Yield | | | |AVP |Avon Products, Inc. |26. 59 |-19. 00 |3. 50 |15. 03 |1. 31 | |CPB |Campbell Soup Company |33. 50 |-4. 00 |3. 50 |13. 01 |1. 9 | |CLX |Clorox Company, The |68. 81 |7. 00 |3. 20 |17. 46 |2. 39 | |CCE |Coca-Cola Enterprises Inc. |25. 81 |-5. 00 |1. 90 |16. 15 |1. 79 | |CL |Colgate-Palmolive Company |76. 95 |-9. 00 |3. 00 |12. 23 |2. 70 | |GIS |General Mills, Inc. |36. 65 |0. 00 |3. 10 |14. 90 |2. 24 | |K |Kellogg Company |54. 17 |3. 00 |3. 00 |15. 49 |2. 18 | |TAP |Molson Coors Brewing Company |43. 5 |0. 00 |2. 60 |12. 87 |3. 20 | |PEP |PepsiCo, Inc. |63. 24 |-5. 00 |3. 00 |15. 58 |2. 25 | |PG |Procter Gamble Company, The |60. 60 |-5. 00 |3. 20 |15. 05 |2. 78 | The first item that can be noticed from the above chart is that the se companies underperformed the S 500 significantly during the past twelve months (Sommer). This lag is not indicative of a turning point. The poor performance reflects high unemployment and consumer uncertainty. The consumer is being more selective in its discretionary spending and seeking alternate, cheaper products. The market seems to reflect this understanding. The high dividend yields provide a measure of support to these stock prices but they also reflect the lack of price appreciation. | Ticker |Company |EPS TTM |2011 EPS |2012 EPS |FCF TTM |Payout Ratio| | | | |(Est. ) |(Est. ) | | | |AVP |Avon Products, Inc. |2. 28 |2. 01 |2. 26 |-0. 03 |38. 0 | |CPB |Campbell Soup Company |2. 36 |2. 43 |2. 53 |1. 15 |47. 50 | |CLX |Clorox Company, The |5. 25 |3. 94 |4. 43 |2. 00 |41. 00 | |CCE |Coca-Cola Enterprises Inc. |2. 05 |2. 04 |2. 26 |1. 44 |5. 90 | |CL |Colgate-Palmolive Company |4. 46 |5. 05 |5. 50 |2. 98 |45. 50 | |GIS |General Mills, Inc. |2. 51 |2. 48 |2. 68 |0. 60 |41. 80 | |K |Kellogg Company |5. 6 |3. 47 |3. 78 |-0. 17 |30. 20 | |TAP |Molson Coors Brewing Company |3. 81 |3. 78 |4. 04 |1. 98 |28. 30 | |PEP |PepsiCo, Inc. |3. 97 |4. 48 |4. 90 |3. 21 |47. 60 | |PG |Procter Gamble Comp any, The |3. 84 |3. 97 |4. 36 |3. 43 |49. 00 | Each of these companies reports solid earnings over that past twelve month period. Consensus analyst estimates for both the current year and next year are less impressive. We believe the estimates reflect expectations for continued weakness from stressed consumers† (Sommers). These companies are all overpriced and have no catalyst for change. The assumption that investors can find safety by identifying sectors or themes is a dangerous one. Avon recorded feeble operating performance in the fourth quarter of 2010. The company’s earnings per share plunged 13. 2% to $0. 59 from $0. 68 per share in the year-ago period. The decline was principally due to reduction in operating margin, which resulted from unfavorable product mix, rising commodity cost and a 27% sales decline in Venezuela (Zachs). Moreover, Avon ended fiscal 2010 with a long-term debt of $2,408. 6 million, reflecting a debt-to-capitalization ratio of 59%, which is substantially higher, and could negatively influence the company’s credit worthiness and make it more vulnerable to the macro-economic factors and competitive pressures. Additionally, the North American market continues to remain sluggish with volume falling 14. 0% in the fourth quarter of 2010. Moreover, the company’s initiatives to change the product mix and reposition the business in the U. S. arket will require significant expenditure to support increased advertising and promotional activities. This is likely to undermine Avon’s overall operating performance, moving forward. Besides, the company is expecting a mid single-digit revenue growth in fiscal 2011, which can be achieved through strong field programs coupled with an innovative. As well, call it luck; on November 08, 2010, Avon sold out its entire ownership interest (7 4. 67%) in Avon Japan to TPG Capital, otherwise the scenario could have been worse for the company due to the recent crisis in Japan product pipeline (Zachs). Pulling out of the Japanese market was part of the company’s 2010 decision to redouble its efforts in China. It announced the sale of its 75% stake in Avon Japan to private equity firm TPG for $90 million in late 2010. The move also was part of the beauty-products maker’s plan to refocus on direct sales. (The Japanese unit typically generated more than half its revenues through direct mail. ) III. Industry Analysis (Personal Products – Cosmetics Toiletries) Because of the wide arrange of products Avon offers, it is quite difficult to pin point one single industry. Thus, going by their primary selling products, Avon fits most accurately into the Personal Products and Cosmetics Toiletries industries. Companies that manufacture and/or market personal care products produce cosmetics, fragrances, and razors. The personal care products industry targets many faces – from chubby newborns to 40-something near-goddesses to those newly retired and dreaming of a beachfront condo. While companies in this sector would like to cater to everyone, the industry has found potential in both the Baby Boomers and their children — the teens and ‘tweens. Called Gen Y, Boomer’s teens offer an estimated $9 billion in purchasing power (Hoover’s). Leaving no demographic untouched, personal care products makers also are expanding their target markets across gender lines, marketing everything from cosmetics to hair care to men and teen boys, as well as women. With more US consumers reaching the age of 55 (33% by 2030), the industry has targeted this more-vain-than-not age segment and has logged revenue growth in skin care and hair coloring products throughout the past few years as a result. On the other end of the spectrum, the teen girl population age 12 to 19 grew from 14. 3 million in 1995 to 15. 2 million in the US in 2001 (Hoover’s). Industry beauty companies, such as Avon Products, are targeting this demographic with lifestyle brands the likes of Avon’s Mark. While women have historically been a target market — primarily because women are the likely shoppers — the buying power of males is not ignored by the personal care industry. In fact, the group’s buying power is eagerly sought after. Industry giants are tapping into the revenue potential of personal care products made specifically for men, illustrated by Procter Gamble’s acquisition of Gillette in October 2005 for some $57 billion (Hoover’s). Gillette represents more than razors. In the eyes of the industry, Gillette is the king of marketing to men. As the top marketer to women, Procter Gamble has counted on its purchase of Gillette to give it the keys to the castle and enable it to become the voice to men, as well. Men offer revenue potential beyond Gillette’s Mach3 and Colgate-Palmolive’s Mennen brand. A Newsweek magazine poll conducted in mid-2003 revealed that more than half of men age 35 to 55 are â€Å"somewhat† satisfied with their overall appearance. This percentage reflects an increase for this age segment since Newsweek’s last poll in 1996. Companies have begun educating men on the topics of sunscreen, lotions, nail care, hair color, and more. Along the way, the personal care industry has been piquing the interest of the male customer and introducing him to the profitable skin care market, as Estee Lauder has with its Aramis and Clinique brands and Beiersdorf has with its Daily Protective lotion (formerly NIVEA for Men). This trend still extends into 2008. Regardless of gender or age, customers access personal care products through a variety of venues, including grocery stores, drugstores, mass merchandisers, warehouse clubs, specialty retailers, and online e-tailers. Reports about personal care products sales for grocery stores and drugstores are usually prefaced with the phrase, â€Å"excluding Wal-Mart. † (Fidelity) This is a reminder that Wal-Mart Stores, as well as some warehouse clubs, present something of a wildcard to the industry. Outside the brick and mortar, personal care products makers have a polished business model for using direct-selling methods to reach target markets. Cosmetics companies have gained sales advantages — with little or no overhead — by letting their customers sample products at home parties. Direct sellers, such as Avon Products, Mary Kay, and Amway, have long relied on this concept. UK-based natural personal care retailer The Body Shop has tested the US waters by selling through independent consultants and continues to sell in the US after seeing positive results. No matter where a company in the personal care products industry identifies its untapped growth potential — be it in the teenage girls or mid-life males markets — a few of the same factors apply. Staying competitive means implementing innovation fueled by billions of dollars in RD and a strategy of quick-to-market products. Reaching far and reaching fast are significant parts of the battle. However, expanding as wide as the tentacles of Wal-Mart and maintaining brand recognition and loyalty in a sea of private labels may prove to be the ultimate challenges. Fidelity) [pic] Competitors: Avon faces competition from a variety of products and product lines both nationally and globally. The beauty and beauty-related products industry is extremely competitive and the number of competitors and degree of competition in this industry varies extensively from country to country. Globally, Avon competes against products sold to consumers by other direct-selling and direct-sales com panies and through the Internet and against products sold through the mass market and prestige retail channels. The major competitors of the company are L’Oreal SA (LRLCY. PK) and Revlon Inc. (NYSE: REV). Competition from mass merchandisers and specialty and department stores has spurred Avon to not only spend many millions on RD but set aside just as much — $100 million — to support the launch of a global ad campaign. Avon anticipates driving additional growth based on fragrances (Today, Tomorrow, Always) and skin care (Anew anti-aging) sales. To that end, it signed on award-winning singer Fergie to develop a signature fragrance, which was unveiled in 2010. Previous partnerships have involved French designer Emanuel Ungaro for two fragrances (U by Ungaro for Her and U by Ungaro for Him) and the New York Yankees’ Derek Jeter for â€Å"Driven† men’s fragrance and a personal grooming line of products. (Yahoo! Finance) [pic] Revlon (REV) is engaged in the production, marketing and selling of an array of cosmetics, hair color, beauty tools, anti-perspirants/deodorants, fragrances, skincare and other beauty care products. The company primarily operates in North America, Asia-Pacific, Europe, Africa, and Latin America. It is headquartered in New York City, New York and employs 4,800 people. Revlon’s global brand name, product quality and marketing experience have enabled it to create one of the strongest consumer brand franchises in the world. Revlon’s brand equity among the consumers enabled the company to garner 12. 7% of the US mass retail color cosmetics market; 9. 7% of the hair color market; 4. 6% of the perspirants/deodorants market; and 21% of the beauty tools market, during 2009 (Revlon). Strong brand image of the company facilitates customer recall and allows Revlon to penetrate new markets as well as consolidate its presence in the existing ones. The company recorded revenues of $1,295. 9 million during the financial year ended December 2009 (FY2009), a decrease of 3. 8% as compared to 2008. The decline in revenues was driven by lower net sales of Revlon and Almay color cosmetics and some of the other beauty care products. The operating profit of the company was $170. 8 million in FY2009, an increase of 10. 2% over 2008. The net profit was $48. 8 million in FY2009, a decrease of 15. 7% as compared to 2008 (Revlon). L’Oreal (LRLCY. PK) is one of the largest cosmetic companies in the world. It produces and markets a range of make-up, perfume, hair and skin care products in over 130 countries. It is headquartered in Clichy, France and employs 64,600 people. Since its inception about 100 years ago, the company has developed a strong brand portfolio of 23 international brands. The company’s products are sold under well-known brands such as L’Oreal Paris, Garnier, Maybelline, SoftSheen Carson, CCB Paris, L’Oreal Professional, Kerastase, Redken, Matrix, Mizani, Lancome, Biotherm, Helena Rubinstein, Kiehl’s, Shu Uemura,and Giorgio Armani. These brands are available through a range of distribution channels ranging from mass market, to selective distribution including hair salons, pharmacies/drugstores and a network of directly owned stores and franchises. Strong brand portfolio lends better visibility and presence in all distribution channels and enables L’Oreal to reach a large customer base, thereby increasing its market penetration opportunities. L’Oreal operates through three business divisions: cosmetics, the Body Shop, and dermatology. The Body Shop division operates a chain of 2,550 stores in 63 countries worldwide specializing in skin and hair care products made from natural ingredients. The company recorded revenues of E17,472. 6 million ($24,367. 8 million) during the financial year ended December 2009 (FY2009), a decrease of 0. 4% compared with 2008. The operating profit of the company was E2,577. 6 million ($3,594. 8 million) in FY2009, a decrease of 5. 4% compared with 2008. The net profit was E1,792. 2 million ($2,499. 5 million) in FY2009, a decrease of 8% compared with 2008 (L’oreal). (Fidelity) [pic] IV. SWOT Strengths |Weaknesses | | | | |Diverse geographic presence enhances |Chinese operations marred with controversy | |scale of operations and mitigates local market risks |and poor performance | | | | |Low cost business model of direct selling |Lack of clear-focus and strategy for non-beauty products | | | | |Strong brand equity |Declining operating margins | |Opportunities |Threats | | | | |Restructuring initiatives for organizational Competitive environment in the global | |Effectiveness |cosmetics industry | | | | |Re-branding strategy to drive consumer |Company’s revenues tied to the | |Demand |performance of the sales representatives | | | | |Emerging markets enhances the scope of |A diversified global operation exposes Avon to currency fluctuation | |growth for the Avon’s value cosmetic |risks | |products | | V. Value Line Analysis On December 24, 2010, Jerome H. Kaplan, a Value Line analyst, points out that investors are not thrilled about Avon’s mediocre progress. The company’s stock price has declined in the last three months. Avon continues to struggle a bit in the U. S. and Chinese markets as is reflected in September-quarter earnings, as well as deteriorating growth in the vital markets of Brazil and Russia. Kaplan states, â€Å"Long-term emerging market-oriented investors should consider this untimely stock. Avon could be viewed as the equivalent of a diversified portfolio in fast-growing regions, such as Latin America, Asia, and Central and Eastern Europe. (Value Line) Improves margins, profits, and share price will most likely be a result of the growth of these markets by 2013-2015, in addition to savings of over one billion dollars by 2012-2013 from programs reducing Avon’s cost structure. When looking at the Value Line, we notice a Safety rating of 3. A Safet y rating is another way to measure the company’s risk or financial strength. It is measured from 1 to 5, with 1 being the highest and best rating indicating the company has a less likely chance of becoming bankrupt and are less volatile. In Avon’s case, a 3 may be interpreted as being unpredictable. If the score is lowered to a 4 or 5, the greater the short-term price movements the stock may experience. Safety ranks work better than Beta when there is a break in the market (when the market is going down). Arguably the most important investment recommendation found on Value Line is the Timeliness rating. The scale is also from 1 to 5 with again 1 being the most desirable rating which reflects the top 100 stocks within Value Line’s 1,700 stocks. Investors typically are encouraged to buy a portfolio of stocks across six or more industries with a ranking of 1 for Timeliness. After some time, investors are encouraged to keep an eye on this rating and when it falls to a 4 or 5 rating that stock should be sold, as is the case with Avon with a Timeliness rating of 4 (Money-Zine). With a financial strength of a B++, Avon is considered a company that would most likely survive a depression. This means the company has sufficient liquidity to payout their dividends or increase how much they give as dividends. When income is the primary consideration, a strong balance sheet provides greater assurance that a dividend can be maintained (Valueline). Proper financing ensures stockholders that operations can be expanded without having to disperse a portion of the earnings to bank or bondholders. The stock price stability (SPS) is the standard deviation of weekly stock prices over the last five years. It is ranked from 5 to 100 and in increments of 5. A ranking of 100 reflects the lowest standard deviation, which reflects the greatest stability attainable, while 5 indicated the largest standard deviation and the least stability. Price stability along with the company’s financial strength rating determines a stock’s Safety ranking. Avon has a price stability of 75 which puts them not too far from the top and would be considered to be on the lower side of good stability. The price growth persistency (PGP) of a stock is measured in the same format as the stock price stability. A stock that is 100 probably beat the index every year of the last 10 years. Avon’s PGP rating is 45, which is on the low side of average. This measurement rewards this fund for the consistency with which it outperforms the broader universe if equity offerings over an extended period of time. Earnings predictability for Avon is 65. This rating provides a measure of the reliability of an earnings forecast. Ratings with a 100 are noted as the â€Å"best fit† on the regression line, meaning they have a high consistency of earnings. Predictability is based upon the stability of year-to year comparisons, with recent years being weighted more heavily than earlier ones. Reliable forecasts are close to 100 and the least are close to lowest of 5. Being that Avon falls around the middle of these two extremes, it can be said that the company is somewhat reliable and other factors should be considered in conjunction. A stock’s beta is a measure of a particular stock’s price volatility and risk relative to a broader measure of stock price movements such as a market index (Money-Zine). Many stock beta calculations are performed relative to the S 500; however, the Value Line Beta calculation uses the New York Stock Exchange Composite Index. The most important fact to point out is that the beta measures a stock’s movement in price. If a stock has a beta of 1. 0 or above, which is the value of the market beta, it will experience more movement either up or down relative to the index. In comparison, a stock with a beta of less than 1. 0 is considered less risky and stable with smaller price fluctuations. According to Value Line, Avon has a beta of . 5 right under the market beta, which implies that this stock is not risky and will most likely not experience any drastic changes in its price. The Technical ranking of a stock is almost similar to that of its Timeliness ranking except f or the fact that the Technical ranking does not take into consideration earnings per share projections, only the opportunity for a stock’s price appreciation. With a Technical ranking of 2, Avon, according to Value Line, should be purchased since this rating indicates Avon has short-term capital gains, in the three to six month timeframe (Money-Zine). The plowback method is sometimes used to calculate a company’s earnings after dividends have been paid out. A high rate indicates that a company pays less in dividends and thus reinvests more of its earnings into the company. Investors tend to prefer a lower plowback ratio in a slow-growing company and a higher one in a fast-growing company. Whether or not this is desirable depends on the rate of growth. The plowback rate is calculated using the following formula: ROE x (1 – Payout Ratio (Dividends per share/Earnings per share)). Plugging in the Value Line figures for Avon the result is, . 492 x (1 – (. 84/1. 45)) = . 207 = 20. 7%. To calculate Avon’s free cash flow we need the following = per share earnings + cash flow from operations – required dividends – capital spending. Thus, 1. 45 + . 44 – . 84 – . 69 = $0. 36. VI. Ratio Analysis Profitability |12/31/2010 | |12/31/2009 | |12/31/2008 | |12/31/2007 | |Ratios | | | | | | | | |2006 |5. 5 |   |1. 75 |   |6. 26 |   |60. 28 | |2007 |5. 4 | |1. 81 | |7. 23 | |70. 67 | |2008 |8. 3 |   |1. 81 |   |8. 38 |   |125. 92 | |2009 |6. 1 | |1. 61 | |6. 4 | |64. 27 | |2010 |5. 9 |   |1. 48 |   |4. 74 |   |41. 4 | According to this DuPont Analysis for Avon, all three sectors show inconsistencies and overall fluctuations up and down. In 2008, the company is at its highest level but dramatically goes down in all sectors the year following and continues to decline. Overall, efficiency in all sectors are not very stable. The company has had its off and on days throughout the years without any trend or consistency. Avon needs to control their operations and cost efficiency more closely. VII. Regression Descriptive Statistics – Growth Analysis Using the data figures for Avon provided through Value Line from 2002 to 2009, a descriptive analysis and linear regression were produced for SPS, Shares, EPS, CF, DIV, ROE, PE, BV, FCF, OM, RTC and NPM (Appendix). A more comprehensive analysis was done for EPS, FCF, PE, and ROE. Included in each financial variable analysis is the calculation of normalized data points for the 7th and 8th periods, which are years 2008 and 2009, respectively. Within this additional analysis the Current to Normalized (CNE) was also calculated, and each resulting figure was compared to the normal expected range of . 85 – 1. 15. In the last step of this additional analysis, growth rate and variability figures were also produced. *Please Note: the ROE figures for the years of 2002, 2003, 2005, and 2008 were noted as â€Å"NMF† on Value Line, thus the figures used in the analysis were calculated using the net income after tax from the income statement and the shareholder’s equity from the balance sheet. Looking at the summary of the results for these four financial variables in the chart given below, only the CNE of EPS, which is . 93 falls within the normal range of . 85 – 1. 15, which means that in the remaining three areas of FCF, PE, and ROE, Avon is operating below the expected and acceptable range. These below average results signify that the normalized points produced are not adequate enough to rely on to calculate appropriate growth rates. As can be seen also in the summary, there is a positive growth rate in both EPS and ROE, but negative in both FCF and PE. ROE may be at a significant high growth rate because of the out of norm results that were calculated for the years of 2002, 2003, 2005, and 2008 as mentioned above. In each of these particular years, shareholders equity was low in comparison to net income (negative in 2002) which resulted in abnormal figures Value Line did not wish to indicate. FCF has a negative growth rate since in 2005 it was at an unsustainable figure of 1. 07 and then drastically declined to . 34 the following year and even lower to . 25 in 2007. This drastic change coupled with another fluctuating high and low between 2008 and 2009 are factors for this negative growth rate. In relation, although not as drastic, for PE results more visibly decline in the last two periods of 2008 and 2009. |Avon Products, Inc Financial Variables Analysis | | | |EPS |ROE |FCF |PE | |Normalized 8th Period | |$1. 55 |$156. 38 |$0. 46 |$22. 18 | | | |   |   |   |   | |Normalized 7th Period | |$1. 51 |$121. 35 |$0. 52 |$22. 7 | | | |   |   |   |   | |Current to Normalized | |0. 93 |0. 31 |0. 79 |0. 84 | | | |   |   |   |   | |Growth Rate | |3. 09% |28. 87% |-12. 80% |-0. 88% | Another aspect of the descriptive and regression analysis that is important to point out are the R-squared and skewness. R-squared, also known as the coefficient of variation, is helpful in providing a measure of how well future outcomes are likely to be predicted by the model. The values for R-squared range from 0 to 1: the closer to 1 the results are, the better the â€Å"fit’ of the predicted values and the more realistic or reliable they are. R-squared can also be explained as the strength of the relationship between time and the variable. For all four financial variables, the R-squared figures range from . 01-. 25, which are indicative of weak relationships between time and each of these variables. None of the data points for these variables are strong measures of how well the regression line approximates the real data points. Skewness is a measure of the asymmetry of the probability distribution of a real-valued variable (Wikipedia. com). The results are usually either positive or negative, or in some instances undefined. A negative skew in characterized and having the mass distribution concentrated on the right of the figure or in most recent years and has relatively few low values. A positive skew has a mass distribution concentrated on the left o the figure or in earlier years and has relatively few high values. For both EPS and PE, the skewness is positive in contrast to ROE and FCF which are both negative. Growth for EPS and PE both took place in recent years while growth for ROE and FCF took place in earlier years. |Avon Products, Inc Financial Variables Analysis | | | |EPS |ROE |FCF |PE | |R-Squared | |0. 1041 |0. 2092 |0. 2527 |0. 101 | | | |   |   |   |   | |Skewness | |1. 0284 |-2. 5446 |-0. 3754 |0. 8432 | For the remaining financial variables, the same analysis was produced. Interestingly enough, the CNE for these variables fall within the normal expected range of . 85 – 1. 15, except for BV which is slightly over at 1. 18. These figures range from . 91 – 1. 04. The growth rates for DIV, CF, BV and SPS are positive, but are negative for Shares, OM, NPM and RTC. The negative growth rate of Shares means that the company is buying back their stock. For R-squared the only strong relationships between time and that variable were DIV at . 584, Shares at . 8963 and SPS at . 9632. The R-squares for BV and RTC are relatively moderate. Skewness for DIV, BV, OM and NPM are negative with growth occurring in earlier prior years and skewness for CF, Shares, SPS and RTC were positive with growth occurring in the latter years. |Avon Products, Inc Financial Variables Analysis | | | | | |EPS 2009 |1. 45 | | | | | |Growth Rate = |3. 9% | | | | | |Payout Ratio = |36% | | | | | |Discount Rate = |7. 10% | | | | |Avon Projections 2010-2019 | | |Period |Years |EPS |DIV |PV | |1 |2010 |1. 49 |0. 54 |$0. 50 | |2 |2011 |1. 54 |0. 55 |$0. 48 | |3 |2012 |1. 59 |0. 57 |$0. 47 | |4 |2013 |1. 64 |0. 59 |$0. 45 | |5 |2014 |1. 69 |0. 61 |$0. 3 | |6 |2015 |1. 74 |0. 63 |$0. 42 | |7 |2016 |1. 79 |0. 65 |$0. 40 | |8 |2017 |1. 85 |0. 67 |$0. 38 | |9 |2018 |1. 91 |0. 69 |$0. 37 | |10 |2019 |1. 97 |0. 71 |$0. 36 | |PV total of dividend payout for the next 10 years: |$4. 26 | Terminal Value The 2019 stock price calculated reflects the value of all future dividends or cash flows in perpetuity. In order to determine the 2019 stock price the following will be needed: Because when using the above process the discount rate is assumed and one of the biggest variables that may fluctuate and thus cause the result to differ, other methods should also be considered when doing a company stock price valuation. One other such popular method is the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) The main purpose of this model is to explain the relationship between risk and the expected return that a stock may yield and is used in the pricing of risky securities (Investopedia). The following formula is used in the calculation of CAPM: o CAPM = Rf + (a (Rm – Rf) Rf = Risk-free rate (Treasury bond rate) assumed at 5% o Rm = Expected market return assumed at 12% o (a = Beta of the security; from Avon’s Value Line beta is . 95 Thus, when using this CAPM formula to calculate the discount rate, the following result is returned: CAPM = . 05 + . 95 (. 12 â⠂¬â€œ . 05) = . 1165 = 11. 65% discount rate (Ke). This new discount rate of 11. 65% is now inputted into the dividends projections table done previously. The new table is shown below with a PV total of dividend payout for the next 10 years now at a reduced amount of $3. 45. The new terminal value also decreases to $16. 87 as well as the PV of this 2019 stock price to $5. 60. The stock remains overvalued with an intrinsic value of $9. 06 compared to the current price of $29. 22. The price-to-intrinsic is now 3. 23. |Variables used to determine PV total of dividend payout for the next 10 years: | | | |EPS 2009 |1. 45 | | | | | | |Growth Rate = |3. 09% | | | | | | |Payout Ratio = |36% | | | | | | |Discount Rate = |11. 5% | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |Avon Projections 2010-2019 | | | | |Period |Years |EPS |DIV |PV | | | |2 |2011 |1. 54 |0. 55 |$0. 45 | | | |3 |2012 |1. 59 |0. 57 |$0. 41 | | | |4 |2013 |1. 64 |0. 59 |$0. 38 | | | |5 |2014 |1. 69 |0. 61 |$0. 35 | | | |6 |2015 |1. 4 |0. 63 |$0. 32 | | | |7 |2016 |1. 79 |0. 65 |$0. 30 | | | |8 |2017 |1. 85 |0. 67 |$0. 28 | | | |9 |2018 |1. 91 |0. 69 |$0. 25 | | | |10 |2019 |1. 97 |0. 71 |$0. 24 | | | |PV total of dividend payout for the next 10 years: |$3. 45 | | The only way that Avon stock would be considered undervalued would be at a discount rate of about 4. 9% or below as shown in the table below. |Variables used to determine PV total of dividend payout for the next 10 years: | | | |EPS 2009 |1. 45 | | | | | | |Growth Rate = |3. 09% | | | | | | |Payout Ratio = |36% | | | | | | |Discount Rate = |4. 0% | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |Avon Projections 2010-2019 | | | | |Period |Years |EPS |DIV |PV | | | |2 |2011 |1. 54 |0. 55 |$0. 50 | | | |3 |2012 |1. 59 |0. 57 |$0. 50 | | | |4 |2013 |1. 64 |0. 59 |$0. 9 | | | |5 |2014 |1. 69 |0. 61 |$0. 48 | | | |6 |2015 |1. 74 |0. 63 |$0. 47 | | | |7 |2016 |1. 79 |0. 65 |$0. 46 | | | |8 |2017 |1. 85 |0. 67 |$0. 45 | | | |9 |2018 |1. 91 |0. 69 |$0. 45 | | | |10 |2019 |1. 7 |0. 71 |$0. 44 | | | |PV total of dividend payout for the next 10 years: |$4. 75 | | X. Rule #1 The Four M’s †¢ Meaning †¢ Moat †¢ Management †¢ Margin of Safety (Sticker Price) Does the business have meaning to you? Since my tender age of 4, I remember going door-to-door with my mother distributing Avon brochures and samples. Not only was she a single mother at the time, but she also went to school and worked another part-time job. My mother eventually left her part-time job and made Avon her full-time career. She now has 25 years of selling Avon and making a living out of it. My step-father also quit his full-time job and dedicated his time to helping my mother out with the business. My whole life I have seen my mother work her hardest to give me anything and everything she could to raise me and get me to where I am now and she could not have accomplished that if it weren’t for her loyal commitment to Avon Products. She built her business from the bottom up just like any other Avon representative. She now works from home and has all her clients come to her. My mother has always told me that she eventually wants to hand over the business to me and I have taken this opportunity in Finance class to learn more in-depth about the company and what it offers not only as a business owner but also as an investor. Ironically enough, just about a month ago my mother showed interest in investing in the company (yes, after 25 years! ) and asked me about whether she should and if so how much she should invest. This evaluation project gave me even more reason to choose Avon Products, Inc as my chosen company of interest. Does the business have a wide Moat? Or in other words, is the company’s future predictable? Avon has been in existence almost 100 years, 95 to be exact. It has had an exciting development from start to present going from being solely in the perfume/cosmetics market to expanding their products to include an array interests from kids toys to men’s sports watches. They have captured a competitive advantage from the beginning starting off as the first to introduce direct selling and now being a well renown beauty global entity; they have indeed establishes a good name for themselves. Avon continues to do extensive research to keep up to par with their different markets and products and continuously strives to improve what they already have and produce new products. Many companies have hence since followed in Avon’s footsteps, realizing the success Avon has had with focusing on interpersonal sales and customer service. Avon has a well-established name and reputation and many customers have been loyal since their early years. The Management Ever since the beginning up until 2001, Avon has had male CEO’s. Some find that a bit peculiar being that Avon prides itself on being â€Å"the Company for Women†. Let’s keep in mind though the history of this company as mentioned in the first part, Avon was created by a man by accident perhaps, but definitely with good intentions. As of 2001, the new CEO, Andrea Jung, has brought new hope and meaning to the company. Since her leadership started the company has revolutionized into a new identity with Representatives truly feeling and living the motto of the company. Both customers and Representatives have more confidence in the company and it has portrayed overall both in the financial and operational functions of the company. Safety of Margin (Sticker Price) On Rule #1’s website www. ruleoneinvestor. com, Phil Town, provides various calculators that aid in the decision to buy or not buy a particular stock by inputting various company figures to produce the company’s true value. Step 1 Data Input: Current EPS: 1. 45 # Years: 10 EPS Growth Rate: 13% Step 1 Result: Future EPS = $4. 92 Step 2 Calculate Future Value Data Input: Future EPS: $4. 92 Future PE: 18 Step 2 Results: Future Value = $88. 56 Step 3 Calculate Sticker Price Data Input: Future Value/Share: $88. 56 Min Acceptable ROI: 15% # Years: 10 Step 3 Results: Sticker Price: $21. 89 Step 4 Calculate Margin of Safety Data Input: Sticker Price: $21. 89 Step 4 Results: Margin of Safety: $10. 95 Overall Results: $21. 89 ; $29. 22 (Current Price) = Stock is Overvalued = Sell/Not Buy XI. Conclusions /Final Stock Judgment Based on all the analysis previously set forth here, the best recommendation for an investor would be not to buy Avon stock or to sell their Avon stock if they currently hold interest in the company. Finding that the intrinsic value of the company using two separate methods (AAA bond rate CAPM) both return a valuation that Avon’s current stock price is undervalued, would understandably be sufficient to determine that it would not be the best of choices to invest in the company; at least for the current time. The difficulty as well in trying to formulate a regression analysis for ROE also points to the company’s weaknesses since shareholder’s equity has not shown a constant, positive performance and even at times negative. Income generation for stockholders is not quite strong and would require further, long-term watch if an investor has a personal interest in the company to be able to invest at a later time when the value of the current stock is really what it is worth. Furthermore, recent news indicates it is not the greatest time for Avon in terms of earnings as they have spent a great deal on advertising. Getting out of the Japanese market may have been the most perfectly timed move they have made. Although Avon is currently not seen as one of the strongest companies to invest in at the moment, reviews have said not to leave Avon behind for the future. They are slowly regaining momentum and being that their beta of . 95 is still below the market’s beta of 1. 0, it is not one of the riskiest out there. Also, it must be reminded that with a good Technical ranking of 2, Avon has short-term capital gains, in the three to six month timeframe. At a financial strength of a B++, the company is still in good shape and can most likely survive a depression better than other companies. The company has sufficient liquidity to payout their dividends or increase how much they give as dividends. Investors should still proceed with caution if even in the future the company still maintains a Safety rating of 3 and a Timeliness rating of 4 as these ratings do not give the company enough leverage to be deemed financially reliable. In addition, with a Price Growth Predictability (PGP) of 45, Stock Price Stability (SPS) of 75, and an Earnings Predictability of 65, the company does not perform more than average in all of these areas meaning they don’t really beat the index, they are somewhat stable, and they have an average consistency of earnings. Overall, all of the above inconsistencies and especially the overvalue of the current stock price, will not lead to satisfactory returns. Perhaps in the near future the tables will turn as the company does have many opportunities and room for slow growth, but it will require a watchful eye. Avon is a trusted company with a rich history, especially among women, so there is much possibility of vast improvement and capabilities of big interest to investors if the company is more observant with their financial movement and take care of their shareholders. XII. References Avon Products, Inc. Avon. com. 2011. 2 April 2011 Datamonitor. Business Source Premier. 7 June 2010. 3 April 2011 Fidelity. Fidelity. com. 2011. 8 April 2011 Hoover’s Inc. LexisNexis Academic. 8 April 2011. 8 April 2011 Investment Underground. Seeking Alpha. 21 March 2011. 2 April 2011 Investopedia. Investopedia. com. 2011. 6 April 2011 Kaplan, Jerome H. Value Line. 2011. 2 April 2011 L’Oreal. Loreal. com. 2011. 6 April 2011 Money-Zine. Money-Zine. com. 2011. 4 April 2011 Revlon. Revlon. com. 2011. 6 April 2011 Roberts, Andrew. Bloomberg. 17 March 2011. 2 April 2011 Sommer, Ron. Seeking Alpha. 21 March 2011. 2 April 2011 Town, Phil. Rule #1: The Simple Strategy for Successful Investing in only 15 Minutes a Week. 2011. 9 April 2011 Wikipedia. Wikipedia. com. 2011. 6 April 2011 Zachs. Yahoo! Finance. 16 March 2011. 2 April 2011 XIII. Appendix [pic][pic] [pic] ———————– Corporate Valuation: Avon Products, Inc. (NYSE:AVP) F How to cite Corporate Evaluation Analysis – Avon Products, Papers

The Theme of Attachment in the Shawshank Redemption Society Essay Example

The Theme of Attachment in the Shawshank Redemption Society Paper Formal Writing-What organizations face a lack of attachment to wider society? What is lacking attachment? Lacking attachment is not having a link to something. Be it a material object or objects, or human life. In my opinion, one of the most severe issues illustrated in the Shawshank Redemption, a film directed by Frank Darabont, is the lack of attachment that the prisoners have to the outside world. I will be addressing the issue that this theme presents in The Shaw shank Redemption, as well as in a New Zealand and global setting. The New Zealand setting I will be addressing are rest homes, and the global setting are prisons housing prisoners of war. During the course of the film, ‘The Shawshank Redemption’, there are no references of any kind of visitors or parcels for the prisoners from the ‘outside’. This proves that the prisoners have little knowledge of what is going on outside the prison walls. Although the prisoners have little luxuries from the outside on the count of Red’s ability to â€Å"locate certain things from time to time†, it is evident that they have very little. An example is the theater room. We will write a custom essay sample on The Theme of Attachment in the Shawshank Redemption Society specifically for you for only $16.38 $13.9/page Order now We will write a custom essay sample on The Theme of Attachment in the Shawshank Redemption Society specifically for you FOR ONLY $16.38 $13.9/page Hire Writer We will write a custom essay sample on The Theme of Attachment in the Shawshank Redemption Society specifically for you FOR ONLY $16.38 $13.9/page Hire Writer Andy has already seen the movie showing four times, which might show the fact that they have little variance? Brooks shows this theme powerfully after he leaves on parole. Brooks walks out the prison gates staring out at the world outside the grey walls he has seen for the last 40 years of his life. Brooks sits in the bus holding on for what seems like dear life on the railing on the seat in front of him, probably indicating his need to hold on to something solid now that he is on his own. In his letter to the â€Å"fellas†, Brooks talks about how he saw an â€Å"automobile once†, when he â€Å"was a kid†, but now, he remarks, â€Å"they’re everywhere†. This quote shows his obvious ignorance to the progress of the world. Brooks sums up the issue cleanly with the quote â€Å"the world went and got itself in a big hurry†. This aspect of Brooks’ journey shows that he recognizes the fact that everything has surpassed him; he can’t keep up alone on the outside. There are several moments in the film when the severity of this issue is revealed beneath the surface. For example, he is surprised when Andy speculates on what is possible through mail; setting up a social security number and license card amongst other things. The evident lack of connection to the outside world is obviously present. Brooks is the most obvious character who illustrates this. I also believe that although Red does know a lot, there are still things on the outside that surpass him. I personally doubt that prisoners of our day and time experience the same issues that the men of Shawshank Prison. Today, prisoners have visiting hours, packages from family and friends, and are lightly given parole and/or home detention. As well as this, the media has published several times information on ‘luxuries’ that men inside prison now have; widescreen televisions, heated flooring, and the ability to earn money while on the ‘inside’. This is a strong opposite of Shawshank Prison. Of all atrocities shown in the film, one of the most appalling is the maggot the Andy finds in his first breakfast. This is denying a man of his most basic need; edible food. Prisoners today have three meals a day. As well as this, they can receive food parcels from home, which reinforces the theme of attachment to society. In my opinion, the people in New Zealand today who probably face the issue of disattachment most are those who live in rest homes. Although rest homes are a stark difference to prisons, they face a similar disattachment. Patients of rest homes live in partial isolation in rooms or apartments. They have the right to feel ‘abandoned’ as those who cared for them now have no time for them, and have left them alone. The existence of rest homes may not be so harsh, but the inhabitants most probably feel this way. However, an example that shows off the ‘harshness’ of rest homes is the case of the ‘Gagging Rest home’ where a resident of a rest home was gagged by an employee for ‘making too much noise’. I do not personally know anyone who lives in a rest home, but those who have parents in rest homes speak of how their mothers or fathers despise being there. On a global scale, I support prisoners once again. But this time, prisoners of war, who are detained as a result of a war. Prisoners are obvious advocates for those who have no attachment to society. Prisoners of war however, are more extreme. They are imprisoned in a country that they are not originally from, because they were fighting in a war most probably for their nation’s freedom. There are obvious hardships for prisoners of war; language barriers, and clashes of cultures and traditions. There are even rumors of torture, mistreatment and execution. A prime example of a P. O. W amp is Guantanomo Bay the USA’s controversial prison for prisoners of war and suspected terrorists. There have been numerous reports over the abuse and beatings of inmates in the prison. The theme, a lack of attachment, is evident with prisoners of war because they are isolated from their countries; their families, friends, homes, jobs, just about everything. And while they are imprisoned fo r years and often traded as items used in discussing treaties, they are held in places completely alien to them, where they can’t connect with anything. When nations decide to end their wars, prisoners of war are exchanged in accordance to treaties. This is regularly done in conflict hotspots like in Lebanon and Israel. Most, if not all people, have a distinguished connection or attachment to society and people. Humans need social connection in order to progress, to live. When they are denied of this, they lose their sense of life; they grow alone, until they can’t live within society anymore. Brooks showed this very well. I believe that The Shawshank Redemption projected this theme extremely well. Red’s quotes about ‘institutionalism’ and ‘relying on these walls† are even better indicators of the severed connections with society. Those living in rest homes should also feel that sense of dies attachment. Having lived over 50 years of their lives integrated in society, living alone within a schedule of strict timetables is basically taking the life they had before. The same principles are present in prisons housing prisoners of war. In some sense, they can feel like Andy did, imprisoned for unjustified means. In my opinion, I believe that being separated from society can be damaging to a person’s psyche. I am not supporting criminals or prisoners, but I think the standards presented in The Shawshank Redemption aim to make the audience feel empathetic. The director, Frank Darabont, said himself that â€Å"if you don’t feel fro Brooks, then you don’t have a heart†. What if you were to be kept in a room, to be let out only to eat, or to use the bathroom? Imagine living in a world where your every move is timetabled. How would you survive? Living this way leads to changes in people, they do things that they would not do on the ‘outside’. There are people such as Bogs Diamond, who become savage, and turn to homosexuality, or gentler souls, like the ‘gagging rest home’ victim who complained. No human should be denied regular connection with the world.

Risk of Diseases †English Descriptive Essay

Risk of Diseases – English Descriptive Essay Free Online Research Papers Risk of Diseases English Descriptive Essay Statistics of Canada has recently stated that less than 2% of overweight people living in Canada are overweight because of a thyroid problem and the other 98% are overweight because of their sedentary lifestyle. Working in the fitness industry as a personal trainer and fitness consultant, you get to train and work with a lot of people especially and predominately sedentary individuals who realize that they have to change theory lifestyle in order to decrease their risk of diseases and enable themselves to feel good about themselves. While working, I had the privilege of working with a 32 year old single women from Toronto named Wanda. Wanda like many of the overweight people I have helped for the past 5 years as a personal trainer and fitness consultant wanted to lose weight, she was concerned with her weight, wanted to fit better in to her clothes and wanted to eliminate her old lifestyle for a new improved one. When I first saw Wanda she was the typically sedentary women that I usually encounter. She had shoulder length blonde hair that was very obvious she had bleached, her nose was long and pointy and her she was very fair. When she talked to me I noticed that her thin lips wee cracked and need some lip balm on them. We discussed what she wanted to change about herself and the first thing, she mentioned was her weight. I took a good look at her rounded figure that was estimated to be about 200 lbs. and her height which she was about 5 feet 4 inches and informed her that by my observation of her I could tell that she was in the overweight catelgory according to the BMI which was a measurement of your weight divided my your height and let her know that this would be our main focus. As I had Wanda Atedp to take her skin fold, which was a mental caliper that slightly and gently pinched her skin to tell me how much body fat she had, I noticed het designer name clothes. She had on a red gap t-shirt that was obviously two sizesto small for her that it spaneded her skin was begging to have some fresh air, her belly was sticking out and she had sweat staines under her arms. She wore blue navy blue pants with pink flowers in the front of the tight pants and yellow bumbles on the back. Again theses were too small for her and thought out the skin fold assessment many times she would grasps her hands and squeeze them throughthe side of her pants to pull them up. After the skinfold, we talked about her lifestyle. I knew what she was going to say before any movement of her thin chapped lips open. She looked like the type of wome who ate a lot of unhealthy food like greasy French fries and over drenched ketchup on top of the fries making you double guess if she was eating French fries or kethup. When she got home from work, she would watch tv like the simpsons and the young and the restless then after wasting her whole evening oindulging her self in the tv, she would crawl herself to bed and start all over again. Research Papers on Risk of Diseases - English Descriptive EssayMarketing of Lifeboy Soap A Unilever ProductPersonal Experience with Teen Pregnancy19 Century Society: A Deeply Divided EraQuebec and CanadaAnalysis Of A Cosmetics AdvertisementHip-Hop is ArtThe Hockey GameEffects of Television Violence on ChildrenCapital PunishmentLifes What Ifs

Biography of Robert Hanssen, Spy Who Betrayed the FBI

Biography of Robert Hanssen, Spy Who Betrayed the FBI Robert Hanssen is a former FBI agent who sold highly classified material to Russian intelligence agents for decades before he was finally arrested in 2001. His case is considered one of Americas greatest intelligence failures, as Hanssen operated as a mole within the bureaus counterintelligence division, the highly sensitive part of the FBI tasked with tracking foreign spies. Unlike Cold War spies of an earlier era, Hanssen claimed to have no political motivation for selling out his country. At work, he often spoke of his religious faith and conservative values, traits which helped him avoid any suspicion during the years that he was in secret communication with Russian spies. Fast Facts: Robert Hanssen Full Name: Robert Phillip HanssenKnown For: Worked as a mole for Russian spy agencies while serving as an FBI counterintelligence agent. He was arrested in 2001 and sentenced to life without parole in federal prison in 2002Born: April 14, 1944 in Chicago, IllinoisEducation: Knox College and Northwestern University, where he received an MBASpouse: Bernadette Wauck Early Life and Career Robert Phillip Hanssen was born in Chicago, Illinois, on April 18, 1944. His father served on the police force in Chicago and was serving in the U.S. Navy during World War II when Hanssen was born. As Hanssen grew up, his father was reportedly verbally abusive to him, often ranting that he would never succeed in life. After graduating from a public high school, Hanssen attended Knox College in Illinois, studying chemistry and Russian. For a time he planned to become a dentist, but eventually wound up obtaining an MBA and becoming an accountant. He married Bernadette Wauck in 1968 and, influenced by his devout Catholic wife, he converted to Catholicism. After a few years working as an accountant, he decided to enter law enforcement. He worked as a policeman in Chicago for three years and was placed on an elite unit that investigated corruption. He then applied and was accepted into the FBI. He became an agent in 1976, and spent two years working in the Indianapolis, Indiana, field office. Initial Betrayal In 1978, Hanssen was transferred to the FBI office in New York City and was assigned to a counterintelligence post. His job was to help assemble a database of foreign officials posted in New York who, while posing as diplomats, were actually intelligence officers spying on the United States. Many of them were agents of the Soviet intelligence agency, the KGB, or its military counterpart, the GRU. At some point in 1979, Hanssen made a decision to sell American secrets to the Soviets. He visited an office of the Russian governments trading company and offered to spy. Hanssen would later claim that his goal was simply to make some extra money, as living in New York City was putting a financial squeeze on his growing family. He began providing the Soviets with highly valuable material. Hanssen gave them the name of a Russian general, Dimitri Polyakov, who had been providing information to the Americans. Polyakov was carefully watched by the Russians from that point on, and was eventually arrested as a spy and executed in 1988. Robert Hanssens business cards, chalk and thumb tacks, which he used to communicate with his Russian contacts, according to the FBI. FBI.gov In 1980, after his first interactions with the Soviets, Hanssen told his wife what he had done, and she suggested they meet with a Catholic priest. The priest told Hanssen to stop his illegal activities and donate the money he had gotten from the Russians to charity. Hanssen made the donation to a charity affiliated with Mother Teresa, and cut off contact with the Soviets for the next few years. Return to Spying In the early 1980s, Hanssen was transferred to FBI headquarters in Washington, D.C. To his colleagues in the bureau he seemed to be a model agent. He often steered conversations to talk of religion and his very conservative values, which were aligned with the very conservative Catholic organization Opus Dei. Hanssen appeared to be a devoted anti-communist. After working in the FBI division that developed secret listening devices, Hanssen was again placed in a position to track Russian agents operating in the United States. In 1985 he approached the Soviets again and offered valuable secrets. During his second round of dealing with Russian agents, Hanssen was much more cautious. He wrote to them anonymously. While not identifying himself, he was able to gain their trust by initially providing information which the Soviets found both credible and valuable. The Soviets, suspicious of being lured into a trap, demanded to meet him. Hanssen refused. In his communications with the Russians (some of which were eventually made public after his arrest) he insisted on setting the terms of how he would communicate, pass information, and pick up money. His Russian contacts and Hanssen were highly trained in espionage techniques and were able to work together without ever meeting. At one point Hanssen spoke to a Russian agent over a pay phone, but they generally relied on placing signals in public places. For instance, a piece of adhesive tape placed on a sign in a park in Virginia would indicate that a package had been placed in a dead drop location, which was usually under a small footbridge in the park. Undated file photo released by the FBI February 20, 2001 shows a package recovered at the Lewis drop site containing $50,000 cash allegedly left by Russians for FBI Agent Robert Philip Hanssen. FBI / Getty Images A Third Stint of Betrayal When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991 Hanssen became much more wary. During the early 1990s, KGB veterans began to approach western intelligence agencies and provide information. Hanssen became alarmed that a Russian with knowledge of his activities would tip off the Americans that a highly placed mole was operating within the FBI and the resultant investigation would lead to him. For years, Hanssen stopped contacting the Russians. But in 1999, while assigned as an FBI liaison with the State Department, he once again began selling American secrets. Hanssen was finally discovered when a former KGB agent contacted American intelligence agents. The Russian had obtained Hanssens KGB file. Realizing the importance of the material, the United States paid $7 million for it. Although his name was not specifically mentioned, evidence in the file pointed to Hanssen, who was put under close surveillance. On February 18, 2001, Hanssen was arrested at a park in northern Virginia after he had placed a package at a dead drop location. The evidence against him was overwhelming, and to avoid the death penalty, Hanssen confessed and agreed to be debriefed by American intelligence officials. During his sessions with investigators, Hanssen claimed his motivation had always been financial. Yet some investigators believed anger about how his father treated him as a child triggered a need to rebel against authority. Friends of Hanssen later came forward and told journalists that Hanssen had exhibited eccentric behavior, which included an obsession with pornography. In May 2002, Hanssen was sentenced to life in prison. News reports at the time of his sentencing said American intelligence agencies were not entirely satisfied with the extent of his cooperation and believed he was holding back information. But the government could not prove he had lied, and wishing to avoid a public trial, the government chose not to void his plea agreement. He was sentenced to life in prison. Robert Hanssen moments after being arrested. Getty Images   Impact of Hanssen Case The Hanssen case was regarded as a low point for the FBI, especially as Hanssen had been so trusted and had committed such betrayals for so many years. In court proceedings the government stated that Hanssen had been paid more than $1.4 million during his spying career, most of which he never actually received, as it was held for him in a Russian bank. The damage Hanssen did was considerable. At least three Russian agents he identified had been executed, and it was suspected that he compromised dozens of intelligence operations. One notable example was the information that the Americans had dug a tunnel under the Russian embassy in Washington to install sophisticated listening devices. Hanssen was incarcerated in a supermax federal prison in Colorado which also houses other notorious inmates, including the Unabomber, one of the Boston Marathon bombers, and a number of organized crime figures. Sources: Hanssen, Robert. Encyclopedia of World Biography, edited by James Craddock, 2nd ed., vol. 36, Gale, 2016, pp. 204-206. Gale Virtual Reference Library,A Search for Answers: Excerpts From the FBI Affidavit in the Case Against Robert Hanssen. New York Times, 22 February 2001, p. A14.Risen, James. Former FBI Agent Gets Life in Prison For Years as a Spy. New York Times, 11 May 2002, p. A1.

How is Soviet montage is revolutionary With the reference to the work Essay

How is Soviet montage is revolutionary With the reference to the work of Soviet Russian film directors Sergei Esienstein and - Essay Example The creation of expression with culture and politics as well as the understanding of how to use specific techniques in this time period were all associated with the construction of the film. While both directors had specific styles, there were more associations with the new creation of film and the experimentation of how one could communicate specific messages to the viewers. Defining the Soviet Montage The concept of the Soviet montage began in the 1920s with the focus on editing specific scenes within movies and combining this with other scenes to create fractured images for the overall plot line. This specific concept emerged out of the Russian Revolution of 1917, which was based on the objection to socialism. The propaganda of socialism was the main component; however, many began to overlook this and believe that the values of socialism were a detriment to society and would lead to strict rules and regulations within society, as opposed to building a stronger ability for citizens to work within society1. The symbolic objective which was established was based on having a free flowing thought of narrative, as opposed to a strict establishment, such as many believed was a component of socialism. This was followed by combining the plotline into one which didn’t require techniques to be consistent or for the plot line to have the established, chronological order that was expected within cinema2. The concept of revolution in the montage was one of the most important factors in using this technique. While this was based on methodologies and techniques for the arts, film producers considered it a way of getting a message across based on the Russian Revolution as well as the politics and economy of the time. The meanings which were established through the broken edits created a political and intellectual agenda that those in the Soviet region could look at and change their understanding about. The narrative and content that was used became important in establ ishing a sense of a political and intellectual revolution, specifically which was believed to be a vehicle for social change. Most of the content which was used in this form was able to take place in an abstract way. However, the meaning which was established allowed for the meaning to relate to the political and economic difficulties of the time, specifically which linked to the voice that was based on the revolution of Russia3. The first historical presence of the montage began with editing between scenes, specifically which would move from long shots that would be followed by a cut in black. This would then lead to a narrative flow that would link specific types of vocabulary and philosophies that were within a specific film area. The main ideal was to create a sense of space, which then held some connections but was able to move into a different narrative direction within the film. As this evolved, it moved into specialized techniques, such as mise-en-scene, where movements were the main component linking together the edits, while the narrative was able to continue in the same direction4. The rules which were established included an established shot in a specific scene, followed by a long shot to create a sense of orientation of where one was as well as to position the performers and objects. This was known